Dynamic Capabilities and Signal Transmission: Research on the Dual Path of Water Utilization Reduction Impacting Firm Value

Driven by the national policy of total water resources control and efficiency improvement, the behavior of water resource utilization reduction by firms is widespread, which may have an impact on the value of firms. This study integrates dynamic capability theory and signaling theory to construct a dual-path analytical framework, systematically investigating the impact of water utilization reduction on firm value and its intrinsic mechanisms. Based on data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2012–2023, fixed-effect models, mediation-effect tests, and heterogeneity analysis are employed for empirical verification. The results reveal that water utilization reduction exerts a significant dual-path promoting effect on firm value: it enhances financial performance (ROA) primarily through technological innovation, reflecting the process of resource orchestration and dynamic capability construction; concurrently, it boosts market performance (Tobin’s Q) mainly by improving ESG performance as a signaling channel, mirroring the capital market’s positive pricing of green signals. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that these effects are more pronounced during the policy deepening stage, in non-water-intensive industries, and in humid/sub-humid regions. This study contributes theoretical support and empirical evidence for firms’ green transformation and the formulation of differentiated water resource policies by the government, highlighting the synergistic development of high-quality economic growth and ecological civilization construction.