Understanding the impact of climate change on tourism is vital for the economies that rely on it. The tourism sector in Croatia, a country with diverse climatic regions, but also diverse features of tourism, is particularly sensitive to changes in climate variables such as 2 m air temperature and precipitation totals. This study analyzes trends in these two key climate variables from 1961 to 2024 across five representative climatic regions: the-mountainous Lika region (Ličko-senjska County), the Kvarner region on the northern Adriatic coast (Primorsko-goranska County), the Zadar region on the central Adriatic coast (Zadarska Counties), and northern continental Croatia (Varaždinska and Međimurje Counties). Linear trends, 5-year moving averages, and comparisons between two standard climate periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) were conducted. Using these data, the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for seven-time scales were calculated for the period 1961–2024 to assess drought conditions and their implications for tourism across the selected destinations. Frequencies of dry, near normal and wet months, estimated by SPI for a nine-month time scale (SPI-9) and a monthly sc-PDSI, were compared for two subperiods, 1961–1992 and 1993–2024. Meteorological data were contextualized for tourism stakeholders, with a focus on adaptation measures. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with tourism professionals in the study regions, providing qualitative insights into observed changes in climate and tourist behavior, operational challenges, adaptation strategies, level of community engagement, and opportunities envisioned. Objective climatological data were compared with the subjective perceptions of tourism experts using the principle of mixed methods, which allows for triangulation. The climatological data indicated a continuous trend of increasing mean annual air temperatures, as well as anomalies of average precipitation amount. The interviews revealed signals of emerging climate shifts, such as changes in the seasonality of visitors, concerns about water scarcity and heat stress. These findings were interpreted in the context of potential threats and opportunities for the tourism sector, highlighting region-specific adaptation strategies. By combining objective climate data with insights from tourism professionals, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on tourism and informs for resilient tourism development across Croatia’s diverse regions. This paper presents a methodological framework for developing adaptation recommendations that draw on both empirical climate data and the lived experiences of tourism work practitioners.
Zovko et al. (Fri,) studied this question.