Spatiotemporal cropland dynamics and sustainable pathways in the Yangtze river economic belt

Despite cropland changes' critical role in ensuring food security, fostering socio-economic development, and balancing ecological protection, the regional variability in cropland dynamics within large-scale watershed economic belts remains understudied. To address this gap, we mapped land use change intensity to analyze cropland change patterns and stability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). Through statistical analysis, we identified key driving factors and predicted cropland changes for 2030 using the FLUS model. We also proposed region-specific sustainable use scenarios. The results reveal a systematic trend of cropland conversion to built-up land and water transforming into cropland in the YREB. Despite a steady decline in cropland area over the past two decades, the intensity of cropland inflows and outflows has remained balanced. The cropland center of gravity follows an east-north trajectory, with local meandering, isotropic shifts, and transverse displacements. Transport networks significantly influence cropland changes in the upper YREB, while climate impacts on cropland in the lower YREB are increasing. Future projections suggest the cropland center of gravity will shift toward southern mountainous regions in the upper and middle YREB and toward northern plains in the lower YREB. Among the proposed scenarios, only the Cropland Protection Scenarios (CPS) align closely with the cropland coverage targets of the Sustainable Pathways in Shared Socio-Economic Development Pathways (SPP1). Urban expansion encroaching on agricultural land is evident in Deyang and Mianyang, while competition with ecological space is pronounced in the middle and lower reaches and in riverine and coastal areas. This study provides a novel perspective on cropland changes in the YREB, emphasizing regional variability and the need for tailored policy interventions, thereby offering a scientific foundation for cropland management and planning.