Most of the water inrush disasters in the construction and operation of underground engineering are closely related to the faults. In this paper, the evolution rule of fault permeability before and after mining disturbance is analyzed by fault zone seepage model experiments and numerical simulation. The static and dynamic main controlling factors of fault water inrush potential are extracted, and the constant weight model of fault water inrush potential is established by multi-factor fusion. The dynamic variable weight cloud model (DVWCM) is optimized and reconstructed by introducing an exponential variable weight function and cloud model theory. The water inrush potential of faults under different disturbance degrees was quantitatively and finely evaluated, and the results of numerical simulation and joint exploration were compared and analyzed. The results show that the fault water inrush is the result of the combined action of natural factors and human activities, and the dynamic factors under the action of disturbance profoundly affect the evolution of seepage characteristics of the fault zone. Under the action of mining disturbance, the accuracy of the DVWCM model is 35.7% higher than that of the constant weight model, achieving dynamic and precise evaluation of the water inrushes potential of faults. The model was applied to the evaluation of the water inrush potential of Yinjiawa (YJW) fault. When the width of the waterproof coal pillar is 60 m, the local water inrush potential of the fault suddenly increased, which was consistent with the actual water inrush situation and the joint exploration results. Finally, the conceptual model of water inrush evolution in the fault zone under disturbance is proposed, divided into Natural state, Disturbance state, and Water conduction state. The research results provide new insights for the fine assessment of fault water inrush potential and water disaster prevention and control.
Dong et al. (Mon,) studied this question.