What question did this study set out to answer?

This work aims to analyze sudden stratospheric warming events and their effects on weather and climate change.

February 12, 2026Open Access

Investigation of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Events Between 1980 and 2100

Key Points

This work aims to analyze sudden stratospheric warming events and their effects on weather and climate change.
Characterization of SSW conditions using definition criteria
Evaluation of historical and RCP 4.5 scenarios
Analysis of stratospheric air temperature and zonal wind speed at different latitudes
Utilization of ECMWF ERA5 as the reference dataset
Examination of simulations from five CMIP5 climate models
Frequency and amplitude of SSW events have clear patterns
Significant changes in arctic vortex structure are observed
Impact on midlatitude weather conditions confirmed

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to characterize Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) conditions and their impact on local weather forecasting and climate change, using SSW definition criteria. The SSWs strongly affect Arctic vortex structure and midlatitude weather conditions. This work evaluates the frequency, amplitude, and dynamical–thermal characteristics of SSWs under historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenarios, focusing on stratospheric air temperature (Ts) and zonal wind speed (Uh) at the 10°N and 60°N latitudes. The fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) is employed as the reference dataset. Simulations of five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, represented by M1 to M5, are analyzed. The primary group of models included 1) the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, version 1.3 (ACCESS1-3, M1), 2) the Hadley Center Global Environmental

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