Extreme Weather for the 21st Century (Q2)

Extreme Weather for the 21st Century (Q2) Executive Summary Extreme Weather, also known as Atmospheric Phenomena (EAPs), including storms, floods, heatwaves, and related hazards, are increasingly shaping global societal risks. Using aggregated historical data from EM-DAT, WMO, and UNDRR (1975–2024), this study projects the quarter-century impact of EAPs for 2025–2049 (Q2/XXI century) along three key parameters: people affected, mortality, and direct economic cost (PNV 2025). Key Findings: 1. People Affected: Historical exposure doubled from Q4/XX (1975–1999) 1.5 billion to Q1/XXI (2000–2024) 3.35 billion. Applying a multiplicative quarter-century increment, Q2/XXI is projected at 7.48 billion, approaching the global population, highlighting that nearly the entire human population may be affected by 2049. 2. Mortality: Despite increasing exposure, mortality has remained roughly stable (Q4/XX: 690,000; Q1/XXI: 680,000). For Q2/XXI, projected deaths continue stable at 670,000, assuming that early warning systems and technological resilience are effective in preventing mortality from escalation with the expected rise and amplitude of Extreme Weather events. Caveat: systemic infrastructure collapse could significantly increase mortality. 3. Direct Economic Cost: Adjusted to present net value PNV 2025, using a 3% stylized global GDP-deflator, Q1/XXI total costs reached 5.43 trillion USD. Projecting with a multiplicative increment rate of 2.8, Q2/XXI is expected to reach 15.2 trillion USD, reflecting the combined effect of higher exposure and escalating hazard intensity. Methodological Considerations: Historical data are aggregated over decades. Linear, quadratic or polynomial extrapolations were intentionally dropped, as they produce unrealistic annual flows and cumulative totals. A multiplicative approach respecting quarter-century increments offers a transparent, conservative, and scientifically defensible projection. Direct costs are expressed in PNV 2025 to account for inflation and allow meaningful historical comparison. Implications: Extreme Weather isaccelerating both in human exposure and economic impact, signaling an urgent need for proactive disaster risk management, adaptation strategies, and resilience planning. Mortality trends indicate that technological and institutional resilience can offset increasing hazard exposure, but societal vulnerability remains a critical concern. Policy frameworks should prioritize infrastructure protection, early warning expansion, and climate adaptation, given that nearly the global population may be affected by 2050. Systemic Fragility and Ripple Effects: These projections represent a conservative baseline that assumes institutional and infrastructural continuity. However, they do not account for "cascading tipping points"—where the simultaneous failure of energy grids, insurance markets, and supply chains triggers a transition from manageable damage to systemic chaos. In such a scenario, the "mortality plateau" would likely rise, replaced by an accelerated regression toward subsistence-level priorities (water, food, shelter and energy security), effectively derailing the technological foundations of modern civilization. All Rights Reserved, Copyright ©️ 2026, JP A-Marl DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18605390