The effects of pedestrianization on commercial dynamics a quasi-experimental study in Barcelona

Cities worldwide are increasingly implementing pedestrianization policies to enhance urban livability, promote sustainable mobility, and stimulate local economic activity. However, while these interventions are often celebrated for revitalizing public space, their potential role in triggering processes of commercial gentrification remains underexplored. This study investigates whether pedestrianization has contributed to commercial gentrification processes in Barcelona. Adopting a quasi-experimental design, pedestrianized streets were matched with comparable non-pedestrianized ones to form treatment and control groups. Using detailed commercial census data from 2014 to 2022, the study constructs indicators capturing shifts in commercial turnover, diversity, and composition. Results indicate that pedestrianization is associated with an increase in commercial closures and a reduction in retail diversity, but not with higher rates of new commercial openings or growth in the number of leisure-oriented businesses. These findings suggest that pedestrianization, while capable of reshaping local retail dynamics, does not by itself trigger full processes of commercial gentrification. Instead, other drivers, particularly touristic pressure, appear more influential in fostering substitution toward discretionary, leisure-oriented commerce. The study contributes to the growing body of research on the socio-economic effects of pedestrianization, offering nuanced evidence on its commercial impacts. • No evidence that pedestrianization alone initiates full commercial gentrification. • Pedestrianization slightly reduced commercial diversity. • Pedestrianization did not lead to a monoculture of bars and restaurants. • Tourism pressure is a stronger driver of commercial change than pedestrianization.