Simulated Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution Range of Four Taxus Species in China

Taxus, a relic plant genus from the Tertiary period, contains taxane compounds that are crucial in anti-cancer drug development and have significant medicinal and ecological value. Evaluation of the potential distribution range and shifts for this genus considering global climate change is vital for conserving wild resources, supporting artificial propagation, and ensuring sustainable development. We analyzed the potential geographic distribution patterns and key environmental factors affecting four Taxus species (Taxus cuspidata, Taxus wallichiana var. mairei, Taxus wallichiana, and Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis) under current climate conditions and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) across three future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) using the regularization multiplier and feature combination parameters of the MaxEnt model. We also explored their responses to climate change over time. The area under the curve of models built using the ENMeval package exceeded 0.9, demonstrating high accuracy. Environmental analysis indicated that the coldest monthly minimum temperature was the main environmental factor influencing the species distribution, except in Taxus cuspidata, for which the human footprint was the primary factor. Currently, the habitats of the four Taxus species exhibit spatial variation, with Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis having the largest suitable area in China, covering approximately 200.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 21.17% of China’s land area. Habitat trends varied under future climate scenarios, with the suitable area expanding for Taxus wallichiana and Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis, and showing expansion and contraction for Taxus wallichiana var. mairei and Taxus cuspidata. The distribution centroids were predicted to shift to higher latitudes over time, with Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis showing particularly clear migration trends. These results offer a vital reference for developing conservation strategies and introduction and cultivation initiatives for these Taxus species.