The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) permits the first net expansion of base acres since 2002. This paper estimates the magnitude and distribution of additional base acres under OBBBA using USDA Farm Service Agency crop acreage data. Under the main scenario incorporating recent Federal Register implementation guidance, approximately 39. 9 million acres would be eligible for addition, which would be prorated down to the 30 million acre statutory cap. Corn receives the largest allocation (10. 2 million acres), followed by soybeans (8. 3 million) and wheat (7. 1 million). North Dakota, Texas, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Missouri lead among states. Using estimated 2025 crop year payment rates, these additional base acres could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional ARC/PLC payments, with corn alone valued at approximately 414–634 million. Estimation of alternative scenarios reveals that estimates are particularly sensitive to the treatment of forage crops; excluding forage from eligible non-covered commodities reduces estimated additional base acres from 30 million to 18. 6 million. Under the assumption that the main scenario is representative of how the update will be implemented, this suggests additional base acres will be concentrated in areas with high forage crop production.
Dylan Turner (Thu,) studied this question.