Hybrid warfare (HW) scholarship acknowledges the phenomenon’s contextual and temporal specificity, yet its dominant conceptual framing has generated a literature largely centred on identifying and categorising hybrid activities. This focus has left the contextual vulnerabilities that enable hybrid threats (HT) and shape an adversary’s selection of tools and methods underexplored. Addressing this gap, the paper offers a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s engagement in the Western Balkans, guided by three core questions: to whom, where, and why is the HT directed in this particular environment? It finds that how local societies perceive an external actor’s engagement (domestic response) is integral to public understanding of what constitutes a HTthreat, and affects whether and how an adversary engages in HW. In the Western Balkans, affinity with Russia is a key factor shaping the domestic response to Russia’s interference in domestic processes, enabling Russia to pursue a sophisticated and impactful range of activities with regional effects, which has turned it into a HW frontline. From a policy practice perspective, a comprehensive contextual analysis that uncovers what makes certain HW practices effective provides a necessary foundation for developing an appropriate set of countermeasures to alter domestic responses within HW deterrence approach focused on societal resilience.
Vesna Bojicic-Dzelilovic (Tue,) studied this question.