Methodological Evaluation of Regional Monitoring Networks in Nigeria Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Adoption Rate Measurement,Context

This review examines regional monitoring networks in Nigeria to evaluate their effectiveness in measuring adoption rates of agricultural practices. A systematic literature review was conducted, focusing on methodologies employed by monitoring networks across Nigeria. The analysis included a critical evaluation of time-series forecasting models used in measuring adoption rates. Regional monitoring networks showed significant variability in their ability to forecast adoption rates with an average prediction error margin of ±5% over the study period. While some networks demonstrated high accuracy, others had notable biases and underestimated trends due to data limitations and model assumptions. Networks should improve data collection methods and consider additional explanatory variables for more accurate forecasting. Enhanced training programmes are also recommended for network operators to reduce human error. The empirical specification follows Y=₀+^ X+, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.