We introduce NeuroCodec, a video prediction system that predicts future frames as residual updates in a pre-trained video VAE latent space. Our key insight is that adjacent video frames share the vast majority of their latent content, making residual updates (Lₓ+₁ = Lₜ + Δ) fundamentally more efficient than full-frame decoding—an observation motivated by hierarchical predictive processing in biological vision. We combine slot-based spatial compression (1024→64 tokens), a lightweight dynamics Transformer (438K params), learned event boundary detection, and cross-attention residual decoding (1. 43M params) into a unified architecture operating on frozen CogVideoX latents. On UCF-101, our system achieves a 36. 8% MSE reduction over the copy baseline (0. 216 vs. 0. 342) with 130–406× lower per-frame latency than a 50-step UNet at equal batch sizes, while maintaining stable 8-frame rollouts (2. 07× error ratio over 50 validation videos). The architecture generalizes to Something-Something v2 (220K videos, 2. 65M frame pairs) without modification. Slot compression captures 88. 6% of latent variance and dynamics prediction improves over the copy baseline by 32. 2%. Full pixel-level evaluation on SSv2 with a SimVP baseline (2. 08M params) confirms that NeuroCodec achieves a strong trade-off between stability and perceptual quality: 2. 67× rollout stability (vs. SimVP's 1. 93×), FID 31. 5 (vs. SimVP's 84. 8, 2000 samples), and LPIPS 0. 194 in single-step prediction (vs. SimVP's 0. 355), at comparable model size (1. 92M trainable parameters). A spectral frequency-matching loss reduces variance-ratio deviation by 55%, achieving LPIPS 0. 105 on UCF-101—within 8% of the copy baseline's 0. 097 despite copy using ground-truth VAE encodings. Systematic evaluation of six improvement strategies provides empirical evidence that the off-manifold bottleneck—previously identified in image generation—extends to video prediction. Predicted latents lie off the VAE decoder's data manifold, and no latent-space loss can fully close this gap without modifying the decoder. A lightweight manifold projector (55K params) with decoupled feedback—correcting the output path while preserving the raw feedback loop—reduces rollout MSE by 3. 3% at 0. 25 ms additional latency.
Joscha Alexander Haertel (Sun,) studied this question.