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This research evaluates the efficiency of district hospitals in Nigeria over a decade using time-series analysis.

March 12, 2026Open Access

Forecasting Efficiency Gains in Nigerian District Hospitals Systems: A Time-Series Model Approach over

Key Points

This research evaluates the efficiency of district hospitals in Nigeria over a decade using time-series analysis.
Conducted a longitudinal study over ten years
Applied ARIMA model for time-series analysis
Used robust standard errors for forecasting
Estimated treatment effects using logit model
Reported uncertainty with confidence intervals
Average efficiency score of district hospitals improved by approximately 15%
Time-series models effectively predict trends in hospital performance
Analysis indicates a discernible improvement in efficiency over the decade

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the efficiency of Nigerian district hospitals' systems over a decade. A longitudinal study using time-series analysis with an ARIMA model. The study employs robust standard errors to account for the uncertainty in forecasting future efficiency levels. Over a decade, there was a discernible trend indicating that the average efficiency score of district hospitals improved by approximately 15%. The findings suggest that time-series models can effectively predict and analyse trends in hospital system performance over extended periods. Policy makers should consider implementing these forecasting tools to monitor and improve healthcare service delivery in Nigerian districts. Treatment effect was estimated with logit (pᵢ) =₀+^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

Forecasting Efficiency Gains in Nigerian District Hospitals Systems: A Time-Series Model Approach over

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Abstract

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