• A robust multi-criteria framework is proposed for NCM cathode recycling selection • Uncertainty is addressed using Monte Carlo and Fuzzy AHP analyses • Hybrid AHP–TOPSIS validates the stability of recycling method rankings • Scenario-based analysis links recycling choices to policy and market conditions • Hydrometallurgical recycling proves robust across all uncertainty scenarios The rapid expansion of lithium-ion battery deployment has intensified environmental and resource-related concerns regarding the end-of-life management of nickel–cobalt–manganese (NCM) cathodes. Selecting an optimal recycling strategy for NCM cathodes is a complex decision-making problem involving technical, economic, environmental, and policy-related factors. This study proposes a robust and uncertainty-aware multi-criteria decision-making framework to evaluate and rank NCM cathode recycling pathways. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to prioritize five recycling methods—hydrometallurgical, pyrometallurgical, biological, direct recycling, and mechanical processing—based on criteria including metal recovery, cost, environmental impact, energy consumption, scalability, processing time, and operational simplicity. Result reliability is enhanced using Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis, a hybrid AHP–TOPSIS approach, and Fuzzy AHP to account for uncertainty in expert judgments. Scenario-based environmental and policy analyses further examine the effects of regulatory pressure, cost priorities, energy constraints, and circular economy goals. The results consistently identify hydrometallurgical recycling as the most robust strategy, with solvent extraction emerging as the optimal technique. This framework provides a practical decision-support tool for sustainable NCM cathode recycling.
Solmaz Abbasi (Sun,) studied this question.