Marine ranching, as a pivotal strategy for enhancing the ocean’s carbon sequestration potential, offers significant potential to mitigate nearshore fishery depletion and restore marine ecosystems amid the global carbon neutrality agenda. However, the mechanistic pathways linking sediment total organic carbon (TOC) to various environmental factors in tropical marine ranches remain insufficiently quantified. This study selected the Wuzhizhou Island Marine Ranch in Hainan Province—a representative tropical marine ranch—as the research site. Field investigations and sampling were conducted during the dry (March 2024) and wet (September 2024) seasons to quantify TOC in surface sediments and associated environmental variables. A two-step analytical framework, integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM), was employed to elucidate the environmental drivers governing the spatiotemporal dynamics of TOC. The results show that the surface sediment TOC at Wuzhizhou Island Marine Ranch exhibits a distinct spatial gradient—Core Reef > Atoll > Control > Estuarine, and a pronounced seasonal pattern with elevated concentrations in the dry season relative to the wet season. The spatiotemporal differentiation of TOC is mainly driven by a gradient (explaining 52.1% of variation) that encompasses processes related to carbon accumulation from terrestrial inputs and primary production, as well as organic matter degradation promoted by nutrients and higher water temperatures. Sediment total nitrogen (TN) emerges as the primary environmental driver of TOC distribution, contributing up to 46.9% of the variance at an extremely significant level (p < 0.001). Furthermore, total phosphorus (TP), pH, and water temperature (WT) have relatively minor influences on the distribution of sedimentary TOC. Our study offers a crucial reference for elucidating the key processes governing the carbon cycle in tropical marine ranches and provides essential theoretical support for optimizing ocean carbon sink strategies in the context of global climate change.
Shi et al. (Wed,) studied this question.