Study on the potential and key factors of agricultural biomass energy from the perspective of resource-environment-market-technology synergy: A case study of Southwest China

As a vital component of renewable energy, exploring the development potential of agricultural biomass energy under the “dual carbon” goals is crucial for promoting regional energy transition. This paper addresses the characterization of agricultural biomass energy potential and its key influencing factors in the southwestern region of China. First, the comprehensive development potential of biomass energy is evaluated from a resource-environment-market-technology synergy perspective. Second, a coupled coordination degree (CCD) model for biomass energy potential based on resources, environment, market, and technology is constructed, and its dynamic characteristics are identified. Finally, the driving factors and obstacle factors affecting the CCD are analyzed, and robustness and sensitivity analyses are conducted. The findings indicate that: (1) The comprehensive potential index of biomass energy in the southwestern region exhibits an overall fluctuating upward trend. (2) Spatially, the CCD demonstrates significant heterogeneity, with Sichuan Province exhibiting the highest CCD value (reaching 0.76 in 2022). Temporally, the CCD exhibits an overall upward trend. Although its evolutionary process demonstrates significant state dependence, the system still reveals inherent potential for upward progression. (3) Environmental regulation and fiscal resource taxation significantly promote coordinated development, whereas technological progress exerts a suppressive effect. This study analyzes the potential of regional agricultural biomass energy and its key influencing factors from a resource-environment-market-technology synergy perspective, providing decision-making references for the sustainable development and utilization of regional agricultural biomass energy. • Evaluating agricultural biomass energy potential multidimensionally. • Identified dynamic features of coordinated coupling of agricultural biomass energy. • Drivers and barriers influencing coupled biomass energy harmonization are analyzed. • Offers a scientific basis for regional biomass energy policy differentiation.