Developing a Sustainable Last-Mile Transport System for Ghana and Burkina Faso: A Modeling Approach

• Integrated EV and bicycle model cuts emissions by 62%. • EVs achieve cost parity after 150,000 km in West Africa. • Route optimization reduces delivery distances by 15%. • Solar charging and policy vital for economic feasibility. • Framework boosts social equity and affordable mobility access. This study proposes a holistic modeling framework to evaluate the technical feasibility and economic viability of sustainable last-mile delivery systems in Ghana and Burkina Faso. The framework integrates System Dynamics (SD) simulation as the primary analytical engine, with supporting modules including Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) multi-criteria decision modeling, and route optimization algorithms. The research identifies viable alternatives such as electric vehicles, bicycle couriers, and solar-powered charging hubs. Results from the SD simulation show that an integrated multi-modal approach combining electrification with expanded non-motorized transport can reduce emissions by up to 62% compared to business as usual (BAU) scenario and lower operational costs by 25 - 30% by 2030. Policy interventions, including subsidies, investment in charging infrastructure, and public - private partnerships (PPPs), are identified `as essential drivers for accelerating this transition. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers, logistics firms, and urban planners seeking to align economic growth with sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa urban logistics to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while fostering regional competitiveness.