Climate change mitigation requires timely, strategic investments. Renewable generation, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and electric vehicles (EVs) are key technologies whose effectiveness depends on expansion levels and mutual interactions. This study examines decarbonization pathways in the power sector through renewables, CCS, and EV adoption, using a capacity expansion model accounting for renewable variability and long-term climate change. Considering a target case of 100 million tonnes of CO 2 e by 2040 in Saudi Arabia and no EV adoption, we find that renewables are substantially displaced by CCS when enabled, with renewable capacity share dropping from 76% to 4%. EV adoption increases electricity demand, but offsets emissions from the transport sector, enabling the power sector to emit more under the same emissions target. Notably, a 10% adoption yields power system cost savings equivalent to 5800 per EV without CCS and 14 with it. Without EVs and after accounting for gas subsidies, the power system cost is 28% lower with CCS than without. While considering a 10% EV adoption, this cost gap narrows to 7%. Enabling managed charging in EVs creates stronger operational synergies with renewables than with CCS, further narrowing the cost advantage of systems with CCS to 3%. Sensitivity analyses for a case without EVs reveal that further PV cost reductions progressively increase its competitiveness relative to CCS, and that achieving cost parity between systems with and without CCS requires storage costs to fall to around one-quarter of current projections. • Mutual effects of renewables, EVs and CCS are integrated in an optimization model. • Climate change effects into Saudi Arabia are considered for both supply and demand. • Decarbonizing solely with renewables requires massive battery cost reductions. • EVs and/or CCS are essential to decarbonize Saudi Arabia cost-effectively.
Fontecha et al. (Sat,) studied this question.