The increasing pressure of global energy shortage demands a better understanding of energy efficiency of current greenhouse food production systems to future climate changes. This study investigates the seasonal dynamics of energy and resource use efficiency for multi-year capsicum production in a high-tech glasshouse under current and future climate conditions. The analysis revealed that heating and cooling energy under the pad-fan energy system varies by over an order of magnitude across seasons, driving significant variation in total energy efficiency in the four capsicum trials. Skipping winter (Scenario 4) achieved the highest total energy efficiency (70.8 kg·GJ −1 ), achieving 14.1 million USD net present value (NPV) over a 25-year projected greenhouse lifespan in a modelled commercial scale glasshouse. Comparatively, year-round production (Scenario 5) has the shortest break-even period of 6.45 years. Forecasting energy demand under IPCC climate pathways demonstrated that energy efficiency improves over time, particularly under mild warming (SSP126) due to reduced winter heating. Therefore, we conclude that implementing smart seasonally adapted cropping and energy strategies will enhance the sustainability and resilience of vegetable production in pad-fan greenhouses in a warmer future climate.
He et al. (Sun,) studied this question.