Non-monetary dynamics of well-being in transition economies: A multi-dimensional analysis of life expectancy in Kazakhstan

This study empirically examines the economic (real GDP per capita and unemployment), demographic (infant mortality and fertility rates), health (hospital bed capacity and vaccination coverage), and environmental (PM2.5 air pollution) determinants of life expectancy in Kazakhstan over the period 1991–2023. A quantitative approach is employed to investigate both short- and long-run relationships using the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A-ARDL) cointegration framework. Long-run coefficients are further validated through Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimators. The empirical findings reveal that economic growth and improvements in health infrastructure significantly increase life expectancy. In particular, real GDP per capita and hospital bed capacity exhibit positive and statistically significant effects. In contrast, higher fertility rates and infant mortality significantly reduce life expectancy. The results also indicate a positive and statistically significant association between PM2.5 air pollution and life expectancy. This finding diverges from conventional expectations and may reflect the simultaneous expansion of economic activity and healthcare investments during the study period. By contrast, the effects of vaccination coverage and unemployment are not statistically significant. Overall, the findings highlight the multi-dimensional determinants of life expectancy and underline the importance of economic development, demographic dynamics, and health infrastructure in shaping population health outcomes in transition economies such as Kazakhstan.