What question did this study set out to answer?

To assess the consequences of reduced Russian wheat exports on the global wheat market and food security.

April 1, 2026Open Access

Impact of Russian Wheat Export Decrease on Global Wheat Market and Food Security

Key Points

To assess the consequences of reduced Russian wheat exports on the global wheat market and food security.
Utilized a partial equilibrium model for analysis
Focused on the projected effects in 2024/25
Analyzed impacts on countries like Egypt and India
International wheat prices are projected to rise by 8.7-28.5%
Significant implications for food security in Egypt and India
Russian wheat policy is identified as a key uncertainty in global markets

Abstract

We examine the impact of decreasing Russian wheat exports on the global wheat market and food security by using a partial equilibrium model.The result of this study shows that the decrease in wheat exports in Russia in 2024/25 is projected to increase international wheat prices by 8.7-28.5%.Furthermore, the decrease in Russian wheat exports was projected to have a significant impact on food security in Egypt and India among the model covering countries.Therefore, we consider that Russian wheat market and policy remain one of the biggest uncertainties and risk factors in the global wheat market and food security.

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