Urban Demographic Risks and Sustainability: A Composite Index Approach to Population Change, Health, and Migration in Armenia

Urban demographic dynamics—including migration, aging, fertility change, and population redistribution—are central to sustainable urban development, urban resilience, and long-term well-being. In many small and transition economies, rapid urbanization combined with sustained emigration and population aging poses significant challenges for urban planning, labor markets, housing systems, and public services. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate urban sustainability-related demographic risks by a composite index and assess long-term demographic dynamics with different trajectories of migration flows and fertility. Since migration flows are more intense among urban population, depopulation is very high in peripheral rural areas, and urbanization is about 64% in Armenia, the results of the research will inform national and urban policy makers to reshape policy frameworks to enhance long-term urban resilience. This study develops a demographic threat index (DTI) to assess demographic risks relevant to urban sustainability in Armenia over the period 2000–2023. The index integrates 20 indicators grouped into three pillars—population change, population health, and socio-economic vulnerability—with indicator weights derived using principal component analysis (PCA). The results reveal a persistent increase in demographic risks, marked by accelerated population aging, declining youth cohorts, and rising socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in urban contexts. A decomposition of population change demonstrates that net migration has been the dominant driver of demographic dynamics, outweighing the combined effects of fertility and mortality. Scenario-based population projections further indicate that even optimistic increases in fertility are insufficient to stabilize population trajectories without sustained positive migration. By linking demographic security to urbanization, migration, and socio-economic vulnerability, the study highlights the importance of integrated urban and demographic policy frameworks. The proposed index offers a replicable tool for evaluating demographic risks in countries facing similar urban and demographic transitions and provides evidence-based insights for urban planning, migration management, and sustainable city strategies.