A Conceptual Framework for Digital Pest Surveillance: SMS Alerts and Pesticide Optimisation in Kenyan Maize Systems

"background": "Smallholder maize production in the Rift Valley is critically threatened by pest infestations, leading to significant yield losses and often excessive, prophylactic pesticide application. Existing pest management strategies frequently lack timely, accessible information, resulting in economic and environmental inefficiencies. ", "purpose and objectives": "This article develops a conceptual framework to theorise the causal pathway through which digital, SMS-based pest alert systems influence farmers' pesticide application decisions. It aims to define the key constructs and moderating variables for evaluating the efficacy of such interventions in reducing pesticide use while maintaining crop yields. ", "methodology": "The framework proposes a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DiD) design. The core statistical model is Y{it = \0 + \1 (\) + \2 Xit + \ + \ +, where Y₈ₓ is pesticide expenditure per hectare for farmer i in season t. Causal inference relies on the parallel trends assumption, with robustness checks using clustered standard errors at the sub-location level. ", "key insights": "The framework hypothesises that timely SMS alerts will lead to a reduction in pesticide expenditure, contingent on message credibility and farmers' access to alternative control methods. A central proposition is that the intervention's effect is moderated by local agro-ecological conditions; for instance, the reduction is theorised to be more pronounced (e. g. , by an estimated 15-25%) in regions with historically high, but variable, pest pressure compared to low-pressure zones. ", "conclusion": "The constructed framework provides a rigorous theoretical basis for empirical evaluation of digital pest surveillance. It clarifies the mechanisms linking information delivery to behavioural change and identifies critical boundary conditions affecting system performance. ", "recommendations": "Future empirical studies should measure the proposed moderating variables, including perceived message trustworthiness and access to scouting services. Policymakers should