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ABSTRACT In response to the risks posed by urbanization and climate change to land availability, China has implemented several significant land cover restoration initiatives since 1998. These initiatives have notably contributed to the objectives of the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27). However, a systematic evaluation of the ecological restoration effects on vegetation from these initiatives has been lacking. This study utilized NDVI, NPP, and TerraClimate data to comprehensively assess the spatial and temporal variations in the Vegetation Ecological Quality Index (VEQI) across China and analyze its response to land cover restoration initiatives. The analysis, spanning from 2002 to 2022, utilized various remote sensing data sources and geostatistical techniques, including the Hurst index, multiple regression residual analysis, and meta‐scale Theil–Sen median trend analysis. The results indicate a consistent increase in China's VEQI over the past 20 years. Notably, the Natural Forest Resources Protection Project and the Beijing–Tianjin Wind and Sand Source Comprehensive Control Project have played crucial roles in land cover restoration efforts. Nationally, the interaction between human activities and climate change has emerged as a dominant factor, affecting approximately 56.8% of China's land area. Additionally, our projections indicate a varied future for China's VEQI trends. While areas with increasing VEQI account for about 70.66% of the total land area, regions with decreasing trends or transitioning from a decrease to increase represent 29.34%. Based on the study's findings, we recommend the development of tailored ecological restoration strategies aligned with regional VEQI trends and the enhancement of ecological balance initiatives amidst urbanization to address declining vegetation ecological quality. These insights highlight the complex relationship between land cover restoration and climate change in the context of COP27, providing valuable guidance for advancing sustainable development goals and future ecological protection initiatives.
Peng et al. (Mon,) studied this question.