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The strategy of building an international tourism island in Hainan is an important national strategic deployment, with tourism as the core, integrating a series of issues such as industry, tropical agriculture, and urban-rural relations. The implementation of this strategy profoundly affects the evolution of local land use patterns and ecosystems on Hainan Island. This paper utilizes a counterfactual analysis framework and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model based on the current land use data of Hainan Island for the three periods of 1999, 2008 and 2017. Accordingly, the spatial and temporal conditions of ecosystem service values (ESV) in 2017, under the assumed scenario of unimplemented international tourism island strategy, were simulated. The net spatial and temporal impacts of the international tourism island construction strategy on the value of ecosystem services on Hainan Island were finally assessed. The results are as follows. First, the total value of ESV in Hainan Island in 1999, 2008 and 2017 were 33.88 billion yuan, 56.045 billion yuan and 50.417 billion yuan respectively showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing; spatially, the ESV were high in the central region and low in the surrounding areas. Second, in the simulated scenario without the implementation of the international tourism island construction strategy in 2017, the total ESV of Hainan Island was 54.19 billion yuan. Third, the implementation of the international tourism island policy reduced the ESV by 3773 million yuan, and the impact of this policy was high in coastal areas and low inland. There was an obvious divergence between the positive and negative effects.
Guan et al. (Fri,) studied this question.