Model Predictions and Auditor Assessments of Going Concern Status

Abstract This paper compares the predictions of a bankruptcy prediction model and the assessments of auditors on the going concern status of a sample of 165 bankrupt companies and 165 matched non-bankrupt companies. Data from US companies for the period 1978 to 1985 were used. Probit analysis (with the weighted exogenous sampling maximum likelihood procedure) was applied to estimate the model parameters. The Lachenbruch U method hold-out accuracy rates of the model are 85.45% for bankrupt firms, 100.00% for non-bankrupt firms, and 99.91% overall. The corresponding accuracy rates of the auditors based on their audit reports are 54.37% for bankrupt firms, 100.00% for non-bankrupt firms, and 99.73% overall. The sensitivity of optimal cut-off points to misclassification costs of Type I and Type II errors was also considered. Results of the study suggest that bankruptcy prediction models can be useful to auditors in making going concern assessments. Further, such models can serve as analytical tools and defensive devices.