Since 2020, outbound tourism in Japan has declined significantly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the Japanese government lifting all border measures in May 2023, the number of overseas travelers has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. This study aims to identify the factors influencing Japanese intentions to travel overseas and clarify the characteristics of individuals who do not intend to travel in the post-pandemic context of 2025. A questionnaire was administered in February 2025, and 1,606 valid responses were collected from Japanese individuals aged 20―69. Grounded in the theory of planned behavior, the analysis utilized constructs such as attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, perceived risk, intrapersonal constraints, and financial constraints. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that attitude was the most significant predictor of travel intention, followed by perceived behavioral control and intrapersonal constraints. Conversely, subjective norms, COVID-19-related perceived risk, and financial constraints had no significant effects. Cluster analysis was conducted to identify the segments with weak intentions to travel abroad. Four clusters were extracted: positive, positive-anxious, negative-insensitive, and negative-rejective. These findings suggest that the current slow recovery is attributable to negative attitudes toward overseas travel rather than pandemic-specific circumstances. Destination marketers should focus on the “Positive-Anxious” segment by fostering confidence and motivation to travel.
Tetsu NAKAMURA (Mon,) studied this question.