Can a meta-analysis-derived simplified scoring model accurately predict clinical response to cardiac resynchronisation therapy in patients with heart failure?
This study protocol outlines the development and real-world validation of a simplified clinical scoring model to predict response to cardiac resynchronisation therapy.
Background Cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) is a cornerstone device-based treatment for patients with heart failure with ventricular dyssynchrony. However, approximately 30–40% of recipients fail to achieve clinical response. Despite extensive research, validated prediction tools grounded in high-level evidence and readily applicable in clinical practice remain lacking. This study protocol describes the development and real-world validation of a simplified clinical scoring model for CRT response derived from systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods and analysis This study will develop a CRT response prediction model via meta-analysis and preliminarily validates it in a single-centre retrospective cohort. Initially, systematic searches of multiple databases up to 31 January 2026 and meta-analysis will synthesise effect estimates for candidate predictors, creating an evidence-based foundation that conceptually functions as a ‘training dataset’. Predictor selection and prioritisation will be guided by study frequency, effect magnitude and clinical accessibility, with factor weights derived directly from pooled random-effects meta-analytic estimates. Log relative risks will be converted to integer scores to establish a series of nested prediction models. Model performance will then be comprehensively assessed in an independent ‘validation dataset’ comprising a single-centre cohort from Xinjiang Medical University, evaluating discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), calibration (calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and clinical utility (decision curve analysis). The final scoring system will be identified through comparative model evaluation guided by parsimony principles. Ethics and dissemination This meta-analysis exclusively uses published, de-identified data and therefore does not require ethical approval. The validation cohort employs retrospectively anonymised patient data in strict adherence to the ethical principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. The study protocol has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (Approval No.: K202403-48-2503A-Y1). As this constitutes a retrospective analysis of existing data, individual informed consent will be waived. Comprehensive measures to protect participant privacy and ensure data integrity will be implemented throughout all research procedures. The findings will be presented at academic gatherings or published in scholarly, peer-reviewed journals. PROSPERO registration number CRD42024572313
Liu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.