The main objective of this study is to explore the potential performance improvements and environmental impact of next-generation Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) under various driving conditions. The environmental impact is assessed using a cradle-to-grave (CTG) approach, based on key scenarios from the Hydrogen Roadmap for Europe, alongside the projected evolution of electricity and natural gas (NG) mixes from 2025 to 2050. In the first phase, the performance of next-gen FCVs is tested in terms of H 2 consumption and efficiency, using a chassis dynamometer under different driving conditions with a commercial FCV model. The H 2 consumption data then feeds into a broader analysis to assess how driving conditions affect the environmental impact based on different H 2 production pathways. Lastly, the study evaluates the H 2 mix evolution from 2025 to 2050, considering both electrolysis- and SMR-dominant scenarios, with corrections made for discrepancies in the H 2 and NG evolution projections. Results indicate that the global warming potential of FCVs could be impacted by 14.3%–15% in 2025 and 7.8-241.1% in 2050, depending on driving patterns with the corresponding H 2 mix. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to range from 23.8 to 36 tonnes of CO 2 eq. in 2025 and from -14.6 to 9.4 tonnes CO 2 eq. in 2050. These findings highlight the significant influence of driving patterns on FCV’s actual global warming impact and stress the importance of considering H 2 , electricity, and NG mix scenarios together for accurate predictions. • The performance of next-gen FCVs varies by up to 52.1% due to driving conditions. • Global warming impact of FCVs could range by -14.6/9.8 tonnes CO 2 eq. in 2050. • The uncertainty in emissions due to H 2 , NG, and electricity mixes is quantified. • The driving conditions influence on the global warming impact of FCVs is presented. • Zero-emission FCVs are feasible by 2050 in SMR B scenario, but not earlier.
Lopez-Juarez et al. (Wed,) studied this question.