Negotiating change in the African Great Lakes: fishers’ knowledge, adaptive strategies, and governance gaps in Lake Victoria’s Muhuru Bay and Migingo Island, Kenya

The African Great Lakes, particularly Lake Victoria, face escalating ecological crises including collapsing fisheries, biodiversity loss, transboundary pollution, and governance failures that threaten livelihoods and ecosystems. Centering traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of Muhuru Bay and Migingo Island fishers, this decolonial study investigates these dynamics through participatory methods including 40 oral free-listing interviews, 50 semi-structured interviews, five key-informant interviews, and three field visits with lakescape walks conducted in Luo, Kiswahili, and English over 12 months (2023–2024). Purposive and snowball recruitment ensured diversity across gender, generations, and migrant status, with two fishers serving as co-authors to uphold reciprocity and data sovereignty. Fishers report Nile perch (Lates niloticus) declines driven by industrial overfishing, migrant competition, and destructive gear, compounded by watershed degradation, transboundary waste flows, and microplastic burdens. TEK reveals thermal shifts (“water burning like tea”), sensory mapping of pollutant hotspots (Osikonyodho), and cryptic haplochromine refuges challenging conventional monitoring. Governance fractures and institutional neglect fuel ecological vigilantism, while conflicting licensing regimes, corruption, and political interference erode trust. Cultural erosion and climate variability undermine traditional closures, yet rituals, lunar-based bans, and celestial navigation persist alongside adaptive innovations. Women expand roles in harvesting, processing, and trade despite exclusion from decision making and heightened vulnerability. Livelihood diversification, shoreline restoration, and collective protest exemplify resilience but also expose inequities. A dietary-cultural-ecological paradox emerges as reliance on sardines (Omena) masks broader biodiversity loss. We propose hybrid governance blending TEK and science, including TEK-informed sediment tracing, elder-led stock assessments, and harmonized regional policies. Gender-responsive reforms (e.g., reserved Beach Management Unit leadership seats, microloan funding) and redirecting aquaculture subsidies toward agroecology and community-led restoration are critical. By framing TEK as lived science and diagnostic authority, this work advances co-management pathways rooted in justice, reciprocity, and resilience.