Validation of the SMART-REACH model after stroke and the effect of colchicine by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk category: a secondary analysis of the CONVINCE randomised clinical trial

Abstract Introduction The Colchicine for prevention of vascular inflammation in Non-CardioEmbolic stroke (CONVINCE) trial showed that recurrent events were significantly reduced among colchicine-adherent non-cardioembolic stroke patients in the on-treatment analysis. This study aimed to validate the SMART-REACH risk score in stroke patients, and to determine whether colchicine’s efficacy varies by baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Patients and methods Patients with non-severe non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) were randomised to colchicine 0.5 mg plus usual care or usual care alone. Participants were stratified into moderate (10%–19%), high (20%–30%) and very high (≥30%) 10-year ASCVD risk categories using the SMART-REACH model. Model performance was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration plots. The primary endpoint (major adverse cardiovascular events MACE) was a composite of fatal or non-fatal recurrent ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest or hospitalisation for unstable angina. Results Among 3144 patients, MACE incidence significantly increased with ASCVD risk levels: 7.2% (moderate), 8.8% (high) and 13.8% (very high) (P .01). The C-statistic for 3-year risk of MACE was 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56–0.63). While no statistically significant treatment interaction was found (P = .88), absolute risk reductions (ARRs) were more pronounced in higher-risk groups: moderate risk 7.2% (colchicine) vs 7.2% (usual care) (hazard ratio HR 1.01; 95% CI, 0.55–1.83); high risk 7.7% vs 9.8% (ARR 2.1%; HR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.53–1.18); very high risk 12.5% vs 15.2% (ARR 2.7%; HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.64–1.12). Discussion and Conclusion We identified an association between very high baseline ASCVD risk (≥30%) assigned by the SMART-REACH score and increased recurrent MACE. Although no significant treatment interaction was observed, patients in higher risk categories may represent a more promising target population for secondary prevention with colchicine. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02898610.