Contribution of child health interventions to under-five mortality decline in Ghana: A modeling study using lives saved and missed opportunity tools

BACKGROUND: Increased coverage of interventions have been advocated to reduce under-five mortality. However, Ghana failed to achieve the Millennium Development Goal on child survival in 2015 despite improved coverage levels of some child health interventions. Therefore, there is the need to determine which interventions contributed the most to mortality reduction and those that can further rapidly reduce mortality to inform the prioritization of the scale-up of interventions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Deterministic mathematical modeling was done using Lives Saved and Missed Opportunity Tools. Secondary data was used, and the period of the evaluation was between 2008 and 2014. Some of the interventions assessed were complementary feeding, skilled delivery, and rotavirus vaccine. RESULTS: A total of 48,084 lives were saved from changes in coverage of interventions and a reduction in the prevalence of stunting and wasting. Reduction in wasting prevalence saved 10,372(21.6%) lives, insecticide-treated net/indoor residual spraying 6,437(13.4%) lives saved, reduction in stunting 4,315(9%) lives saved and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACTs) 4,325(9.0%) lives saved. If coverage levels of interventions in 2014 were scaled up to 90% in 2015, among neonates, full supportive care for prematurity (5,435 lives saved), full supportive care for neonatal sepsis/pneumonia (3,002 lives saved), and assisted vaginal delivery (2,163 lives saved), would have saved the most lives among neonates, while ACTs (4,925 lives saved), oral rehydration salts (ORS) (2,056 lives saved), and antibiotics for the treatment of pneumonia (1,805 lives saved) would have made the most impact on lives saved among children 1-59 months. Lastly, if all the interventions were at 100% coverage in 2014, the under-five mortality rate would have been 40.1 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2014. DISCUSSION: The state of the package of interventions will likely not lead to rapid mortality reduction. Coverage and quality of childbirth-related interventions should be increased. Additionally, avenues to further reduce stunting and wasting, including increased breastfeeding and complementary feeding, will be beneficial.