Mapping of cultivated land resources and food security: spatiotemporal dynamics, mechanisms, and governance paths in China’s 13 major grain producing areas

Accelerating climate volatility, ecological degradation, and increasing land-use pressure demand systematic, data-driven approaches to safeguard cultivated land resources and national food security. Building upon the growing paradigm of intelligent ecological monitoring, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and coupling relationship between cultivated land resources and food security across China’s major grain-producing regions from 2002 to 2023. Integrating multi-source panel data with an arable land productivity evaluation model, gravity-center transfer analysis, an improved land pressure index, and a food security driving-force model, we construct a comprehensive analytical framework that bridges resource conditions, agricultural capacity, and socio-economic dynamics. Results indicate that cultivated land resources in major grain-producing areas remained generally stable and improved over the study period. The arable land pressure index experienced short-term fluctuations in the early 2000s but stabilized after 2007. Moreover, the coupling tension between cultivated land resources and food security has steadily decreased, reflecting an increasingly coordinated development trajectory. These trends suggest progressive alignment between resource endowment, agricultural production structures, and institutional support. Guided by empirical findings and the strategic need for intelligent land governance, this study proposes: optimizing functional zoning in primary production areas to maximize spatial advantages; integrating land-use efficiency with ecological stewardship to advance the strategy of "storing grain in the land"; leveraging agricultural science and digital innovation to realize "storing grain in technology"; enhancing farmer welfare and institutional incentives to ensure "food security anchored in livelihoods"; and pursuing a balanced, resilience-oriented food security pathway. Collectively, these strategies provide evidence-based guidance for fostering synergistic and sustainable development between cultivated land resources and national food security, promoting long-term ecological resilience and socio-economic stability.