Association Between Family History and Coronary Heart Disease Death Across Long-Term Follow-Up in Men

Background— Family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been well studied as an independent risk factor for CHD events in the short term (10–20, and >20 years). Lifetime risk was estimated by use of a modified survival analytic technique adjusted for competing risk with non-CVD death as the competing event. After 811 708 person-years of follow-up, there were 919 CHD deaths and 1456 CVD deaths. After adjustment for traditional risk factors, premature family history was associated with CHD mortality >10 to 20 years (1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.14–2.22) and >20 years (1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–1.95) with wider confidence intervals at 0 to 10 years (1.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.76–2.31). Similar findings were observed for CVD mortality. Compared with men without a family history of coronary artery disease, premature family history was associated with an ≈50% higher lifetime risk for both CHD and CVD mortality (13.7% versus 8.9% and 21% versus 14.1%, respectively). Conclusion— Premature family history was associated with a persistent increase in both CHD and CVD mortality risk across long-term follow-up, resulting in significantly higher lifetime risk estimates.