Given the escalating impacts of global climate change and extreme weather events, the accurate stability assessment of rainfall-induced landslides necessitates a comprehensive consideration of both seepage processes and the inherent spatial variability of soils. Traditional deterministic and two-dimensional (2D) analyses often fail to capture the multi-dimensional kinematic features of slope failures and the stochastic nature of soil heterogeneity, thereby leading to inaccurate risk assessments. This study proposes a three-dimensional (3D) slope reliability analysis framework. Within this framework, a 3D slope geometric model is constructed using GeoStudio 2025.1.0 software, and seepage analysis is conducted by the SEEP3D module. To account for soil spatial variability, the Karhunen–Loève (K-L) expansion method is employed to discretize key shear strength parameters (effective cohesion and effective angle of internal friction). The factor of safety (Fs) is evaluated using the 3D simplified Bishop method, which is then coupled with Monte Carlo simulations to determine the probability of failure (Pf). The results show that rainfall infiltration causes progressive dissipation of shallow matric suction and a significant rise in the groundwater table near the slope toe, resulting in reduced effective stress in the critical resistance zone. As rainfall intensity increases, the Fs decreases approximately linearly from 1.14 to 0.90, whereas the Pf increases nonlinearly from nearly 0 to 98.36%. Under the rainstorm condition, although the Fs remains above unity at 1.063, the corresponding Pf reaches 23%, indicating that deterministic evaluation based only on the Fs may underestimate the actual failure risk. The proposed framework provides a quantitative tool for evaluating rainfall-induced slope instability by integrating transient hydraulic response, three-dimensional spatial variability, and probabilistic reliability assessment.
Wang et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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