Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

Abstract A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high-resolution NWP model. Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to determine the state-of-the-art in fog forecasting and to derive requirements for further research and development. For this particular difficult case, WRF is unable to correctly simulate the fog for any of the parameterizations and model configurations utilized. Contrary, HIRLAM does model the onset of fog, but is unable to represent it beyond the lowest model layer, which leads to an early dispersal of fog in the morning transition. The sensitivity of fog forecasts to model formulation is further analyzed with a high-resolution single-column version of HIRLAM, and with the Duynkerke single-column model as a reference. The single-column results are found to be sensitive to the proper specification of the external forcings. It is reconfirmed that high vertical resolution is essential for modeling the fog formation, the growth of the fog layer, and when the fog lifts for the maintenance of a stratus deck. The properly configured column models are able to accurately model the onset of fog and its maturation, but fail in the simulation of fog persistence and subsequent dispersal. Details of the turbulence parameterization appear to be important in this process. It is concluded that, despite all of the advances in numerical weather prediction, fog forecasting is still a major challenge.