Social class identification discrepancy and fertility intention: Evidence from China

In the context of persistently low fertility rates in China, this paper examines the relationship between discrepancies in social class identification and fertility intentions, offering new insights into addressing the country's fertility challenges. Using nationally representative data from the 2017–2021 China General Social Survey (CGSS), our findings reveal that relative to the respondents with a downward discrepancy in social class identification, both the overestimate ( β = 0.13, P < 0.01) and consistent ( β = 0.09, P < 0.01) groups exhibit significantly higher fertility intentions. These individuals also have a higher number of children and a stronger desire to have two children. Additionally, women, residents with stronger gender-inequality beliefs, people aged 30 to 39, and those living in rice-growing or rural areas are more sensitive to such effects. We also find that a discrepancy in social class identification influences fertility intentions through individuals' well-being, social trust, and perceived fairness. These results underscore the importance of helping residents accurately understand their social class identification. • Social class identification discrepancies are significantly associated with fertility intention in China. • Overestimators and consistent identifiers report higher fertility intentions. • These groups also show a stronger preference for two children. • Effects are stronger among women, adults aged 30–39, and rural residents. • Well-being, social trust, and fairness help explain these associations.