China has established the development target of achieving a gross enrollment rate of 65% in higher education by 2035, and analyzed the differences between this indicator and the Gross Enrolment Ratio for Tertiary Education (GERTE) by UNESCO, as well as the data discrepancies. Based on UNESCO’s measurement methods, the changing trends of GERTE and level differences (such as the layout of ISCED 5–8) between China and the United States are compared, and the impact of policies on the aforementioned scale and level is discussed. It is found that China’s tertiary education enrollment (ETE) far exceeds that of the United States, and the gap between China’s GERTE and that of the United States is narrowing, with preventing the relative scale of China’s tertiary education from being underestimated. Currently, the level contradictions in China’s tertiary education are prominent, with a high proportion of ISCED 5 and a low proportion of ISCED 7–8. The study analyzed methods, results, and policy impacts of predicting future ETE based on factors such as population aged 18–22 and GDP. Based on the 2035 development target and level requirements, the future speeds of enrollment in the four levels of ISCED 5–8 are calculated. It is suggested that China’s tertiary education should transition from “scale growth” to “system restructuring,” with an overall slowdown in the growth rate of enrollment, particularly reducing ISCED 5 enrollment, slowing the growth rate of enrollment in ISCED 6, accelerating the growth rate of enrollment in ISCED 7, and maintaining the current rapid growth momentum of ISCED 8 enrollment, which will be helpful to deeply understand and steadily promote the realization of the 2035 targets.
Wei Zhang (Sun,) studied this question.