Can people accurately predict how major political events will affect their views of themselves and the world? We assessed people’s accuracy in forecasting their affective reactions and changes in enduring psychological traits to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. In a three-wave longitudinal study, people made forecasts of their affective states and traits encompassing well-being (life satisfaction, meaning in life), views of the self (self-esteem, perceived control, optimism) and of the world (cynicism, experiences of disrespect, institutional trust) for the event of Democratic and Republican candidate victory twice: 3 weeks before the election (remote forecast) and on the election day (immediate forecast). Following the election results being called, people reported their experiences. Partisan losers overestimated the event impact on their affective reactions but also trait well-being, self-views and worldviews. Partisan winners did not display systematic forecasting errors. The results demonstrate that forecasting errors extend to predictions of changes in enduring traits.
Stavrova et al. (Thu,) studied this question.