Introduction to the Genus thematic series: The Inequality of uncertainty

Research on fertility dynamics in high-income countries has traditionally emphasized economic, especially individual-level, determinants of childbearing decisions, particularly in times of crisis. This focus, however, risks overlooking the broader social dimensions of uncertainty that shape family behaviors. This article introduces the Thematic Series The Inequality of Uncertainty, which examines how a decade of overlapping crises – including the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic – has transformed fertility dynamics through unequal exposures to both old and emerging forms of uncertainty. Beyond economic constraints, crises disrupt social structures by weakening social networks, civic engagement, and generalized trust, key collective resources for coping with social uncertainty, namely the unpredictability of social practices, social relations, reciprocal and/or altruistic behaviors, and morality in a community. Here, uncertainty is conceptualized as a multidimensional phenomenon, encompassing economic, social, political, psychological, and environmental domains. It is also seen as a multilevel phenomenon: uncertainty is individually perceived but also operates at macro- and meso-levels as a collective condition shaped by social stratification, group belonging, and identity-based expectations. The series addresses three key questions: (i) how newly emerging and comparatively understudied dimensions of uncertainty influence the decisional process of childbearing, (ii) how the multilevel experiences of uncertainty relate to childbearing, and (iii) how uncertainty interacts with preexisting social inequalities in shaping fertility. The five empirical contributions investigate diverse forms of uncertainty – environmental, reproductive, relational, health-related, and labor-market – treating uncertainty both as a driver of fertility behavior and as an outcome of demographic processes. Collectively, the articles highlight the importance of a multidimensional, multilevel, and stratified approach to uncertainty, underscoring the relevance of uncertainty demography for contemporary and future research on fertility dynamics. The findings reported in this Thematic Series not only advance our understanding of fertility decisions – thus touching on the sensitive topic of decreasing fertility rates in advanced economies – but also provide useful indications on the extent to which modelling individuals’ and societies’ perceptions of uncertainty requires going beyond strictly economy-related measures and domains.