Abstract Pakistan has major concerns with energy security as the country relies on imports 70% of its energy supply. Rising political insecurity, instability in international energy markets, and regional conflicts threaten the country’s energy stability. While literature discusses lack of energy, limited studies have examined the influence of geopolitical dynamics. To address this gap, the paper introduces the Geopolitical-Energy Vulnerability Framework (GEVF), which integrates geopolitical observations with indicator-based measurements to evaluate Pakistan’s energy security vulnerabilities. Unlike conventional energy security paradigms, the GEVF incorporates geopolitical risks and analyzes them in light of recent geopolitical events, policy reports, and a global energy database. The findings indicate that Pakistan is highly vulnerable, mainly due to its reliance on Middle Eastern oil routes, the LNG market affected by geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and increasing dependence on infrastructure developed by foreign entities. Additionally, the country’s insufficient infrastructure and low variation further worsen its vulnerabilities compared to nations such as Bangladesh, Turkey, and Egypt. This new framework provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen energy security in Pakistan. The study is also unique in that it offers a repeatable scale for other emerging economies, and systematically determines high vulnerability in all six core dimensions of the Geopolitical-Energy Vulnerability Framework, among them are import dependence, transit-route exposure, price sensitivity, diversification, technological reliance, as well as infrastructural resilience. According to the findings, the urgency of the need to modernize infrastructure, diversify it, and make informed policymaking geopolitically informed is evident.
Dawar et al. (Thu,) studied this question.