How social influence and exit signage shape pedestrian risky exit choices during evacuation

• This study examines how smoke risk, signage, and crowd cues shape exit choice. • Participants show a strong preference for the smoke-free exit. • Misleading signage increases risky smoky-exit choice more than crowd cues. • Perceived risk reduces risky choice, while conformity increases cue effects. Effective evacuation depends on how individuals integrate environmental risk information and external cues when selecting an exit route. This study examines how social influence and exit signage jointly shape pedestrians’ decisions when choosing between a clear exit and a smoke-filled exit. Using an online, video-based experimental survey, 182 participants provided valid data and completed a total of 741 exit-choice trials in which they chose between a clear exit and a lightly smoky exit. Each participant completed multiple trials in a repeated-measures design, in which evacuation signage and crowd movement cues were manipulated within subjects so that exit signage and pedestrian movement independently or jointly directed movement toward the smoky exit or provided conflicting guidance. Mixed-effects logistic regression revealed a strong baseline preference for the smoke-free exit. Misleading exit signage substantially increased the likelihood of choosing the smoky exit, and this effect was further amplified when signage and crowd movement were aligned. Social influence cue alone also increased smoky exit choices, although its influence was weaker than that of signage. When signage and social influence cue conflicted, exit choices reverted toward baseline levels, indicating that contradictory information reduced reliance on external cues. At the individual level, higher perceived risk was associated with a lower likelihood of choosing the smoky exit, whereas stronger conformity tendencies predicted greater responsiveness to social and informational cues. Together, these findings show how formal guidance and social behaviour interact to shape smoky exit choices under uncertainty, with implications for the design and deployment of evacuation signage in smoke-affected environments.