Applying artificial intelligence to disease staging: Deep learning for improved staging of diabetic retinopathy

PURPOSE: Disease staging involves the assessment of disease severity or progression and is used for treatment selection. In diabetic retinopathy, disease staging using a wide area is more desirable than that using a limited area. We investigated if deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) could be used to grade diabetic retinopathy and determine treatment and prognosis. METHODS: The retrospective study analyzed 9,939 posterior pole photographs of 2,740 patients with diabetes. Nonmydriatic 45° field color fundus photographs were taken of four fields in each eye annually at Jichi Medical University between May 2011 and June 2015. A modified fully randomly initialized GoogLeNet deep learning neural network was trained on 95% of the photographs using manual modified Davis grading of three additional adjacent photographs. We graded 4,709 of the 9,939 posterior pole fundus photographs using real prognoses. In addition, 95% of the photographs were learned by the modified GoogLeNet. Main outcome measures were prevalence and bias-adjusted Fleiss' kappa (PABAK) of AI staging of the remaining 5% of the photographs. RESULTS: The PABAK to modified Davis grading was 0.64 (accuracy, 81%; correct answer in 402 of 496 photographs). The PABAK to real prognosis grading was 0.37 (accuracy, 96%). CONCLUSIONS: We propose a novel AI disease-staging system for grading diabetic retinopathy that involves a retinal area not typically visualized on fundoscopy and another AI that directly suggests treatments and determines prognoses.