Doomed to fail? Why success was almost not an option in the 2020 protests in Belarus

This essay analyses the New Protest Movement in Belarus, strongly manifested after the 9 August 2020 Presidential elections. The Belarusian protests, which initially looked like a serious threat to Lukashenko’s power, have lost eventually their thrust and energy. I argue that the main reasons for the failure of these protests consisted of, first, an underestimation of the real rating of Lukashenko, second, the constrained participation of certain social groups (for instance, industrial and agricultural workers mainly ignored these protests), third, a high degree of consolidation of governmental institutions, and, finally, the loyalty of the police and military to the Belarusian President. In addition, many people were alienated by the protests’ symbols and were scared by harsh oppressive measures, taken by the authorities. Although the 2020 protests did not succeed in removing Lukashenko, or changing his internal or external policies, they revealed an increasing degree of mutual hatred and distrust among different layers of Belarusian society. The atmosphere of fear and threat has become intense as never before, but the people’s desire to change the course of developments has also been on the rise, especially among the younger generation of Belarusians.