Purpose This study examines the determinants and consequences of payout initiation among initial public offering (IPO) firms. We investigate how external and institutional factors, including industry peer behavior, economic policy uncertainty and venture capital involvement, influence post-IPO payout decisions and the choice between dividends and share repurchases. We further analyze the implications of payout initiation for firms' innovation activity and long-term stock performance. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 2,003 US IPOs from 2000 to 2020, we employ probit regression models to analyze the determinants of payout initiation, payout choice and magnitude. Cox proportional hazard models are used to examine the timing of first payouts. OLS regression with fixed effects assesses innovation outcomes, while long-term performance is evaluated through calendar-time portfolios based on the Fama-French five-factor model. Findings Payout decisions, including initiation, payout form (dividends versus share repurchases), timing and size, are systematically associated with peer payout behavior, macroeconomic conditions and venture capital backing. We identify significant differences in innovation outcomes and long-term performance across payout types. Firms that initiate dividends experience sharper declines in innovation intensity and more negative long-term abnormal returns than those that initiate repurchases, highlighting important trade-offs among payout commitments, financial flexibility, and growth in the post-IPO period. Research limitations/implications The analysis focuses exclusively on US IPOs, which may limit generalizability to other institutional settings. Innovation is proxied by R&D intensity, which may not fully capture qualitative innovation outcomes. Future research could explore cross-country differences and dynamic adjustments in payout policies over the firm life cycle. Practical implications For managers of newly public firms, the results highlight the trade-off between signaling maturity through payouts and preserving financial flexibility for innovation. Dividend initiation, in particular, may constrain long-term growth. Venture capital investors appear to favor flexibility, influencing payout timing and form. For investors, peer behavior and macroeconomic conditions provide useful signals in anticipating payout decisions and evaluating their long-term implications. Policymakers and market participants should recognize that payout initiation in the post-IPO phase reflects broader strategic positioning rather than merely excess cash distribution. Social implications Payout decisions by IPO firms influence investment in innovation, with broader implications for economic growth, employment, and technological advancement. Commitment-based payouts that reduce innovation intensity may affect long-term productivity and competitiveness. Understanding the conditions under which firms preserve investment capacity versus distribute cash contributes to broader debates about short-termism in public markets. By clarifying how governance structures and macroeconomic uncertainty affect corporate resource allocation, the study informs discussions on sustaining innovation-driven growth in capital markets. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by simultaneously examining the determinants, innovation effects and long-term performance implications of payout initiation among IPO firms. We present new evidence that peer effects, economic stability, and venture capital involvement all influence the likelihood and the form of payout initiation, and show that the flexibility of share repurchases, compared to dividends, and has significant implications for post-IPO innovation paths and shareholder value creation.
Bellemare et al. (Thu,) studied this question.