• Sahelian upwelling sustains major fisheries vital to West African food security. • Climate teleconnections and their impacts on Sahelian upwelling are analyzed. • Fisheries prediction is enabled by Atlantic and Pacific Niño/Niña events. • A bottom-up physical-biological mechanism is identified. • Groundwork is established for predictive tools in Sahelian upwelling fisheries. The Sahelian upwelling supports highly productive fisheries and is vital for food security in Western Africa. Previous studies have shown an influence of El Niño − Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the abundance of several species in the region. With recently released Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) simulations, a global-scale analysis of climate-driven teleconnections and their cascading effects across the Sahelian trophic web is now possible. In this study, seasonal to multi-annual predictability of Sahelian Upwelling marine ecosystem productivity was assessed applying data-driven methods on different climatic sources. These include an atmospheric reanalysis (NCEP) and oceanic biogeochemical retrospective simulations (GFDL-COBALT and ECE-Recon-ORAS4) for the (available) period 1971–2005, together with a FishMIP global marine ecosystem simulation (EcoOcean v1). Leave-one-out cross-validated hindcasts based on Maximum Covariance Analysis revealed a key role of Atlantic and Pacific Niños/Niñas as predecessors of February to May enhanced marine primary productivity and subsequent pelagic fisheries in the Sahelian Upwelling, where a bottom-up physical-biological mechanism was identified. The observed delay of up to 2-yr between climatic triggers and marine ecosystem responses provides a useful first step for marine ecosystem prediction in the area. These insights could inform sustainable fisheries management practices, ensuring the resilience of local communities dependent on these resources for food security and economic stability.
Gómara et al. (Fri,) studied this question.