Does Environmental Regulation Affect China’s Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity? Considering the Role of Technological Innovation

Agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) is vital to sustainable agricultural development (SAD), which plays a pivotal role in achieving high-quality economic growth in China. The current research quantified China’s AGTFP from 2007 to 2019 with the Super-SBM model and the GML index. Subsequently, it examined the impact of environmental regulation (ER) on AGTFP and its heterogeneity. Finally, this study developed a mediating effect model and a panel threshold model to investigate the role of technological innovation (TI) in affecting environmental regulation (ER) on AGTFP. The findings indicate that the following: (1) The average annual growth rate of AGTFP is 7.84%, which is mostly driven by green technological innovation progress. (2) ER has a significant positive impact on AGTFP with noticeable regional differences. The eastern and central regions experience a more substantial promotion effect compared to the western region. Additionally, the prominent grain-producing areas and main grain-marketing areas have a more significant promotion effect compared to the grain-balanced areas. The promotion effect of heterogeneous ER on AGTFP varies, with the effects of command-and-control environmental regulation (ERC), market-based incentives for environmental regulation (ERM), and public participation regulation (ERP) decreasing in magnitude. (3) The mechanism analysis reveals that promoting TI is a crucial way to enhance AGTFP through ER. There exists a notable dual threshold for TI in ER, encompassing both ERC and ERM. Moreover, AGTFP becomes increasingly pronounced. This study presents a novel perspective for promoting SAD, with a focus on the rise in AGTFP and the path to achieving it.