Prognostic value of deep echocardiographic phenotyping in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Background: A novel approach to derive prognostic information from echocardiography in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is to define a phenotype of right heart function combining standard echocardiographic parameters which describe right ventricular pump function and systemic venous congestion. We tested the hypothesis that the combination of advanced strain imaging parameters could yield high prognostic accuracy. Methods: This was a prospective observational study with a single centre derivation cohort and a second centre validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 49 naive PAH patients who underwent right heart catheterisation and echocardiographic evaluation at baseline and 4-12 months after diagnosis. The validation cohort included 83 prevalent PAH patients who underwent the same examinations at 12 months after diagnosis. We stratified the risk of the derivation cohort according to three models: Model 1, based on haemodynamic parameters; Model 2, based on standard echocardiographic parameters; and Model 3, based on advanced echocardiographic parameters. The median follow-up period was 21 months; the end point of the analysis was clinical worsening. Results: In the derivation cohort, haemodynamic and echocardiographic parameters obtained at diagnosis were not associated with outcome, whereas a significant association was observed at first reassessment. Model 3 yielded a better predictive accuracy (Harrell's C index 0.832) as compared to Model 2 (Harrell's C index 0.667), and to Model 1 (Harrell's C index 0.713). The validation cohort confirmed the accuracy of Model 3. Conclusions: A comprehensive assessment of right heart function using right ventricular strain, right atrial reservoir strain and degree of tricuspid regurgitation provides accurate prognostic information in prevalent PAH patients.