The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development

The influence of economic conditions on mortality has been recognized at least since biblical times. Empiricism of the most casual sort was sufficient to establish the link between food supply and mortality. Other components of living standards such as shelter and living space awaited a revolution in scientific method before their influence was finally acknowledged. But recent years have witnessed a movement away from economic determinism in mortality analysis. It is widely believed that mortality has become increasingly dissociated from economic level because of a diffusion of medical and health technologies facilities and personnel that occurred in large part independently of economic level yet this position has its critics who have gained a sympathetic audience! This paper utilizes readily available evidence in a new but obvious way to estimate the relative contribution of economic factors to increases in life expectancy during the twentieth century. The evidence consists of cross-sectional relationships between national life expectancies and national income per head evaluated during three different decades of the twentieth century. These relationships are further used to assess the realism of certain economic-demographic models and to re-examine what have become classical distinctions regarding sources of mortality declines in Western and non-Western areas. (excerpt)