In 2025, the global landscape was marked by complexity and transition, with the world economy remaining under pressure. Global energy consumption continued to grow steadily, while the green and low-carbon transition deepened amid growing regional divergences. International oil prices declined sharply, and natural gas prices in Europe and Asia entered a downward trajectory. Oil and gas production both experienced growth, led by increases in the Middle East and the Americas. The ethylene industry exhibited significant operational divergence, and international oil majors placed greater emphasis on development resilience. In China, the development of a new energy system and the enhancement of energy security accelerated significantly. The construction of a unified national energy market advanced steadily, ensuring strong supply reliability and an improved energy consumption mix. The “reducing oil output, increasing chemicals” strategy continued to progress with “reducing oil and lifting chemicals” of oil consumption structure, although natural gas consumption growth moderated. Both oil and gas production reached new highs, while the refining sector saw continued optimization and restructuring. The three major national oil companies achieved notable progress in high-quality development. Looking ahead to 2026, the international oil market is expected to loosen further, with the operational pivot of oil prices likely to shift downward and natural gas demand projected to grow at a low-to-moderate pace. Geopolitical dynamics will remain a key variable influencing the oil and gas industry’s trajectory. In China, the energy structure will continue to optimize, with accelerated formation of a coordinated, multi-energy complementary system integrating source, grid, load, and storage. Oil apparent consumption is anticipated to increase modestly, while natural gas demand growth is expected to rebound. The petrochemical sector will continue to persue industrial transformation and upgrading.
Xingkun et al. (Sun,) studied this question.